Nickel prices rose from around 150,000 yuan per ton to around 180,000 yuan per ton in January and February 2022 with the strength of their own fundamentals. Since then, due to geopolitics and the influx of long funds, the price has skyrocketed. Overseas LME nickel prices have risen sharply. There was even a historic high of $100,000 per ton. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine triggered the joint sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia’s import and export trade, resulting in a decrease in nickel supply in my country and Europe. Taking this opportunity, the bulls entered the market strongly and pushed up the price of nickel. According to market rumors, the surge in nickel prices is due to the sniping of my country’s stainless steel producer Tsingshan Group by Glencore, the world’s largest non-ferrous metal trader, and international capital. To this end, the LME has revised its trading rules many times, including setting price limits for non-ferrous metals, suspending nickel trading, and canceling nickel electronic trading. This shows the chaos of the nickel market in March.
The trend of stainless steel in the first quarter was similar to that of nickel, as its price increase was mainly driven by the cost side. From its own fundamental point of view, the output of 300 series stainless steel has basically remained at an average of 1.3 million tons per month. The post-cycle performance of the demand-side real estate is average, and the construction area and completed area have both dropped year-on-year.
Looking forward to the second quarter of 2022, nickel prices may come out of the V-shaped market, gradually fading from the heat of geopolitics and long funds, and then continue to rise with the strength of its own fundamentals. From the trend of nickel prices in the first quarter, it can be seen that geopolitics has led to the restriction of the global supply of nickel in Russia, which has caused nickel prices to rise from 180,000 yuan per ton to around 195,000 yuan per ton. Since then, the influx of long funds has caused nickel prices to skyrocket and plummet. . Therefore, in the second quarter, nickel prices may first decline slowly. Combined with the silent agreement reached by Qingshan and the syndicate, nickel prices may return to around 205,000 yuan per ton. If Europe and the United States continue to impose economic sanctions on Russia, the nickel price will gain a strong support at 200,000 yuan per ton. In addition, from a fundamental point of view, the second quarter is a seasonal peak season for stainless steel production. The monthly output of 300 series stainless steel may reach 1.5 million tons, and the new energy field is also expected to continue to make efforts in the second quarter. To sum up, the nickel price may rise again after returning to around 205,000 yuan per ton, with a target of 230,000 yuan per ton. In terms of stainless steel, its price trend is mainly based on the rise and fall of nickel and ferronickel prices on the cost side, and the tepid real estate completion cycle on the demand side has little impact on it.
In the second quarter of 2022, the Shanghai nickel operating range is 200,000-250,000 yuan per ton, and the stainless steel operating range is 17,000-23,000 yuan per ton.
Post time: May-05-2022